I WANT THE JUSTICE SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH ME FAIRLY: I SHOULD NOT BE PERSECUTED FOR NO PROFESSIONAL MISCONDUCT. I WANT TO UPHOLD THE PUBLIC INTERESTS THAT THE COMMON PEOPLE GET FAIR LEGAL SERVICES
Saturday, July 4, 2015
LAWYER'S MOVEMENT - WITH GREAT POWER CAME DASHED EXPECTATIONS
Lawyers’ movement — with great power come dashed expectations
Featured16 HOURS AGO BY LUAVUT ZAHID
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From rule of law to rule of judges
When the lawyers’ movement gave birth to the Black Coat Protests in 2007, Pakistan was ready for a new world. If restored, the revived judiciary was to deliver Eden to the people backing it — more than half a decade later Eden is nowhere in sight.
Why wasn’t the movement able to deliver the results it had promised to the people? Chaudhry Shoaib Saleem, Advocate High Courts, thinks that the movement is a little misunderstood by the people.
“I think that the lawyer’s movement was just a motivational movement, and it provided an impetus to the legal fraternity in the sense that they realised that they needed to unite against dictatorship, against unconstitutionality and for the supremacy of law,” he said.
Saleem feels that the expectations attached to the movement are unfair. “Pakistan had a leadership gap and people wrongly attached their hopes to the movement thinking that the ripple effect of the revolution would extend to every aspect of life — which did not happen. Despite the expectations being there the infrastructure that the government needed to provide to the judiciary, along with the system of prosecution, was never delivered,” he asserted.
“In such circumstances, there was hope but the other material factors required to substantiate said hope never existed/weren’t delivered — and all such hopes were in effect destined to shatter eventually,” he added.
A senior corporate lawyer, Usman Ghazi, rubbished the idea that the movement has anything to do with improving anything. “The lawyers’ movement was meant for the restoration of the dignity of the judiciary because it started when the former chief justice was removed in an illegal and unconstitutional manner,” he said.
Ghazi believes that the revolution that people are waiting for was never promised. “It was not meant to bring a revolution or change in the judicial system itself; it was a backlash against a military dictator and the removal of somebody from the judiciary,” he opined.
“The point was not to ensure justice to the people, nor was it meant to provide speedy justice to the people. The point was that somebody should stand up to the dictator’s rule and judges have been doing this for quite some time,” he asserted.
How did a movement such as this become one for the people, by the people, then? Ghazi felt that it was just how the situation shaped itself. “Once the CJ’s court was restored they thought that since it wasn’t just lawyers but ordinary people too that had joined the movement, some benefit should also come to them. And that was done through the introduction of different judicial policies; for instance the policy regarding earlier disposal of case, appointment of more judges, and therefore number of judges also increased,” he said.
Saad Rasool, a lawyer and columnist, doesn’t share that sentiment at all and doesn’t see the situation as a black and white affair.
“There is no doubt about the fact that the results of the lawyers’ movement have not lived up to the promise. The movement itself was for the right cause i.e., restoring constitutional judges, and in the process ousting the military dictatorship which was a constitutional aberration. However, somewhere in the process what we did was create demigods out of individuals,” he said.
‘Once the CJ’s court was restored they thought that since it wasn’t just lawyers but ordinary people too that had joined the movement, some benefit should also come to them’
Rasool highlighted that at some point the movement lost its core emphasis on the judiciary and rule of law and instead became fixated on the former chief justice and his followers. “In history whenever we idolise human beings over principles we set ourselves up for a number of colossal mistakes,” he said and added: “Those human beings start to believe that they are above the same rules that apply to everyone else, that their word and their heroics alone is the law, and that’s what kind of happened with the judiciary and Iftikhar Chaudhry till he retired — and there are some remnants of this that can be seen in the SC still.”
The power of the judiciary
The movement may not have borne the results that were expected of it by the masses but it did bring certain change. Saleem felt that it made precedence that never existed before. “This movement provided judges the courage to stand against dictatorship, which had no precedence in the history of Pakistan,” he said.
“When have you ever heard of the armed forces being brought into the court? For the missing persons issue in Balochistan this was done, and even orders for FIRs were issued for active officers.”
He also feels that the judiciary gets an unfair share of criticism, and it’s not accidental. “The establishment did not like this happening, and a narrative was developed against the judiciary marking it as a useless force, despite the fact that it’s no longer the same judiciary — this judiciary is no longer sleeping,” he said.
The effect of the movement can verily be felt. “This is the continuation of the lawyers’ movement that the Pakistan Bar Council and other bar councils have moved the Supreme Court (SC) against the establishment of military courts and open arguments are being made and heard against them — which has also never happened before,” Saleem explained.
Ghazi approaches the criticism of the judiciary from another angle. He doesn’t think that change can come overnight and people need to be more patient for it to happen.
“The problem which actually lies at the root of the delays in justice is that there are not enough judges available to hear the cases. So if a judge is burdened with 6000-9000 cases, how do you expect them to perform?” he asked.
The senior lawyer has his own diagnosis of how change will come. “Find suitable candidates and arrange finances, which is difficult — it is being done but it’ll take a lot of time. And once that is done ensure that quality of the judiciary is maintained,” he said.
Rasool feels that the problem has more to do with the attitude of the judiciary.
“The movement turned from being about the rule of law to being about the rule of judges,” he lamented.
“The quintessential critique of governance in Pakistan, and the Musharraf in Pakistan, is that too much power was concentrated in one person and not in an institution — and after the lawyers’ movement the exact thing happened again,” he added.
The revived judiciary started to believe that they don’t draw their power from the constitution, and instead draw their power from the people, Rasool pointed out.
“In fact there were a number of statements made by Iftikhar Chaudhry about the fact that he was brought back through the mandate of the people, and because of the popular movement. When a politician thinks that way it’s alright because a politician is supposed to represent the people; the judiciary is not supposed to represent the people, the judiciary is supposed to represent the command of the constitution even when that command goes against the voice of the people,” he said.
“The judiciary under Iftikhar Chaudhry began to believe that it didn’t need to abide by the constitutional command itself, and that it should go beyond the four corners of law to deliver justice for people. Whatever the constitution said became inconvenient for a while because they could bend, mould and break it to benefit the larger group of people,” he added.
Lawyers running amuck
From tragedies such as Daska to petty issues like beating up a police officer over a glass of water — lawyers have repeatedly made it into the news for taking the law into their own hands.
In terms of Daska, Ghazi pointed out that some criticism isn’t fair. “There are two things, you cannot stop people from holding demonstrations in a democracy. Whenever a community feels that it is being oppressed it can demonstrate. This is not a crime which happened to one person, this was a crime where the president of the bar died — if an ordinary person had died there can’t have been a protest, but if the elected president of a community dies because of the police then it becomes a serious issue,” he said.
However, in terms of all the other instances of lawyers acting like thugs Ghazi isn’t as forgiving. “It is unfortunate that lawyers took the law in their own hands in the protest. What is regrettable is that they manhandled police and burned offices — this is illegal and they should not have done it,” he said.
“I understand that most of the people have a lot of expectations from judiciary and these should be met, and all those lawyers who take the law into their own hands should be punished. Rather, the bar for the lawyers should be set higher than an ordinary person,” he added.
A little training goes a long way and Saleem felt that lawyers needed it the most. “Proper training and coaching for lawyers has failed under the bar councils. The result of this is that there are some bad eggs that are inducted into the judiciary who exploit what we can now see as unity and strength. However, they are small in number considering the total strength of lawyers in the country,” he said.
The 21st amendment has made military courts a part of the constitution, and in effect as a part of the constitution it cannot be questioned
However, the entitled attitudes shown by some lawyers go back to the lawyers’ movement. “One of the worst and most embarrassing legacies of the lawyers’ movement is the ‘wuklagardi’. Before anything else they need to get their hands around this and stop it somehow. The lawyers’ movement created a genie in a bottle when they said lawyers need to come out onto the streets and fight with the police, the media and people,” he said.
“The entire nation came together and watched them do this for three years and then patted them on the back saying you’re doing great work against the military and the dictatorship.”
After the judiciary was restored, while the leaders and senior lawyers went back to work, junior lawyers from district courts remained unsettled. “The power that was given to them once as the legitimate way to express their grievances, that genie that came out of the bottle was never put back,” Rasool explained.
“It is the absolute responsibility of the senior members of the bar and bench to figure out a way to ensure that these lawyers go back to practising the law instead of violating it,” he added.
What of the military courts?
The SC is currently chasing the military courts down and trying to desperately undo their implementation. Most if not all lawyers view the courts with great vehemence and would not mind them coming undone.
“I think the SC is in an extremely tough position. The enactment came after the APS Peshawar massacre, through probably the largest mandate that the nation has ever had — such a consensus has never been witnessed before this,” Rasool said pointing out that the military courts most likely aren’t going anywhere.
“Every law in Pakistan can be struck down on the basis of the fact that it’s unconstitutional. But no provision of the constitution can be considered unconstitutional — because what would be the touchstone on which you would say that it’s invalid? What’s above the constitution?” he said.
The 21st amendment has made military courts a part of the constitution, and in effect as a part of the constitution it cannot be questioned.
“Now if the SC thinks that the courts are a bad idea — as most lawyers including myself do because we need to strengthen our existing courts — then the question is that if the entire people come together and say that there shall be military courts then how can a provision of the constitution be declared unconstitutional?” he asked.
“In my opinion the supreme court cannot do that far. They will say that it is abhorrent and terrible, however, because it is written into the constitution we have no power to strike it down, and we wish the parliament will reconsider its decision and take it out of the constitution,” he said resolutely.
The judiciary was brought back to life after great struggle and to show for it the country has had little action and several headlines. Emphasis needs to be made on the practical instead of the PR for real, tangible change to come through.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
SUMMARY JUDGMENT IN DISCIPLINARY PROSECUTION OF A LAWYER?
The Australian Professional Liability Blog
05:02 (10 hours ago)
to me
The Australian Professional Liability Blog
Summary judgment in a disciplinary prosecution?
Posted: 21 May 2015 04:31 PM PDT
I wrote about the test case on the application of penalties privilege to disciplinary prosecutions of solicitors brought by the Legal Services Commissioner here. Now the Commissioner has made another novel application in the same case, which usefully provides some law on the appropriateness of prosecution applications for summary judgment in disciplinary prosecutions (Legal Services Commissioner v LJS [2015] VCAT 649). The answer, according to VCAT’s President, Justice Garde? Not very appropriate, certainly not in this case, despite the complete non-involvement of the respondent solicitor, because:
‘9. … First, the jurisdiction of the Tribunal under s 4.4.15 of the Act is a protective jurisdiction. A disbarring order or suspension is not punitive in character. In Legal Services Commissioner v Brereton6 the Court of Appeal noted that legislation such as the Act creates ‘civil norms governing the conduct of legal practitioners, the aim of which is the protection of the public and not the denunciation of the practitioner’.7 In Law Society (SA) v Murphy8 Doyle CJ described the purpose of the jurisdiction:
The Court acts to protect the public and the administration of justice by preventing a person from acting as a legal practitioner […] a profession that plays an important part in the administration of justice and in which the public is entitled to place great trust.
10. Clyne v Bar Association (NSW) also highlights the dual nature of these orders that both protect the public from disadvantage and exploitation, and the profession from the loss of status and privilege that might follow should such abuses go without remedy.9 Numerous subsequent cases have adopted these objectives.10 The Tribunal would not be properly discharging its protective duties to the public, the legal profession and the administration of justice generally if it were simply to conclude, in the circumstances of this matter, that the respondent was guilty of professional misconduct as charged without hearing or receiving any evidence.
11 Secondly, a number of the charges are dependent on what was said in conversations, or on behaviour alleged of the respondent which is said to amount to professional misconduct. In order to assess the significance and seriousness of the allegations made against the respondent, it is necessary for the Commissioner to provide the Tribunal with evidence and material as to what is said to have taken place.
12 Thirdly, the findings and reasons of the Tribunal as they relate to the alleged professional misconduct of the respondent, and the gravity of that misconduct if proven, are of fundamental importance to the making of final orders which may significantly affect the respondent and his ability to practice.11
13 In making final orders affecting the respondent’s ability to practice, the Tribunal is required to take into account any evidence going as to rehabilitation, remorse, participation in the conduct of the investigation and hearing, delay, the respondent’s financial and family situation, the respondent’s behaviour and candour, any explanation for the respondent’s behaviour, the benefits of any further training, and any conditions that should be imposed.12 The Tribunal cannot properly discharge these responsibilities if an order is summarily made under s 78, with the result that evidence and information that may be in the possession of the Commissioner is not provided to the Tribunal.
14 Fourthly, the orders that are sought from the Tribunal are discretionary in character. In order to properly exercise its discretionary powers, the Tribunal requires evidence from the Commissioner that will assist the Tribunal in forming a view as to the orders that ought to be made, and why they should be made.
15 In the circumstances of this case, it is appropriate that the proceeding progress to final hearing rather than being dealt with under s 78(2) of the VCAT Act. Given the continuing absence of the respondent, it appears likely that the final hearing will be conducted on an unopposed basis.13′ (footnotes omitted)
Thursday, May 7, 2015
LAWYERS AND CONTINGENCY FEES?
http://indaily.com.au/ispy
AWill allowing lawyers to charge contingency fees increase access to justice, or create a more litigious society?
Comment | A debate is looming about freeing up restrictions on the ways lawyers can charge their clients, and the answers aren’t simple, argues Morry Bailes.
There is a conversation that we will all be having in the not too distant future regarding the charging of contingency fees by lawyers.
Presently it is unlawful for a lawyer to charge a client a percentage of their damages. Damages are the monies awarded to a claimant in a successful civil action to compensate for their loss. The current rules only permit traditional charging, usually on a per hour rate basis. Limited conditional fee agreements are allowed involving some uplift on the usual hourly rate in the event of success, but not a straight contingency. That is still unlawful.
In the dying days of the Rudd/Gillard government, then Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury ordered the Federal Productivity Commission to commence a public inquiry into access to justice in Australia. In September last year its final report was delivered to the government who tabled it in December making it available to the public. A copy can be found at here.
As you might imagine the report is detailed and voluminous, however what it says about contingency fees makes for interesting reading. The commission labels the contingency style fee agreement as “damages-based” billing. This is what it has to say:
The Commission is unconvinced that any perverse incentives inherent in damages-based billing are more pronounced than those embodied in conditional billing. Rather, damages-based billing has the potential to provide several advantages, including better aligning the interests of lawyers and their clients by removing incentives to over service. There is an important caveat to this claim — in order for incentives to be aligned, clients need to be fully informed about the merits, and likely costs, of pursuing their claim.
The Commission considers that the prohibition on damages-based billing should be removed, subject to consumer protections such as comprehensive disclosure requirements and percentage limits on a sliding scale to prevent lawyers earning windfall profits on high value claims.
So, in a nutshell, the Productivity Commission supports contingency fees arrangements. And why wouldn’t it? It comprises a bunch of economists to whom a percentage fee arrangement is easily understood and makes perfect economic and commercial sense. It allows a potential claimant access to the civil justice system that he, she or it may not otherwise enjoy, because payment of fees is contingent on success and the receipt of damages. It leads to efficient prosecution of a claim because, unlike with hourly rates, there is no incentive for a lawyer to dawdle. It is an option available to claimants in Canada, the UK and states of the USA. So why not Australia?
There are two fundamental reasons why we have not gone down the contingency fee path. Both are ethical considerations.
Firstly, contingencies ought to be used where there is risk associated with a claim. The risk is shared by lawyer and client and, like any sharing of risk, there is the potential for reward. A contingency may often yield to the lawyer a sum above what a fee based purely on an hourly rate may yield. On the other hand, the client gets in to the justice system when they otherwise may not be able to afford to.
The ethical dilemma is when to introduce a contingency arrangement. To do so in a matter where there is little or no risk may be unethical. Where you draw the line is one of perception.
The second difficulty is when to advise a client to settle rather than litigate a claim. Invested in the outcome of a matter, a lawyer may be tempted to settle early in order to avoid the risk of litigation resulting in the claimant receiving a lesser result but the lawyer still receiving the contingency. In states of America the contingency therefore slides upward the closer the matter gets to litigation, to reward the lawyer for the increasing risk.
All members of the legal profession are bound by conduct rules; we are an ethical profession which is highly regulated. At present the gap in this area is being filled by largely unregulated litigation funders who expose themselves to the litigious risks and take, in effect, a contingency-style payment from the ultimate award of damages. Almost without exception all large class actions in Australia have been funded by litigation funders in this way, often on both sides. What litigation funders usually do not do is fund individual claims, which is where lawyers may need to fill the breach. Consequential amendments to conduct rules to ensure client protection and maintain ethical standards, as suggested by the Productivity Commission, may be necessary.
Professor Dal Pont of the University of Tasmania Law School, who is a leading voice on the subject of legal ethics, has recently opined that the ethical challenges relating to introducing contingency fee arrangements in Australia can be overcome largely because the same ethical dilemmas exist now and are handled successfully by the profession.
The conversation that we as a society and as a community must have is whether contingency fee arrangements may alter the fabric of this place. Some see such arrangements as providing access to justice. The Productivity Commission refers to those in need as the “missing middle”; well off enough to be ineligible for legal aid or legal assistance but insufficiently well off to pay for a legal action. Contingency fee arrangements are a way to get them into the civil justice system, along with poorer claimants who do not receive a grant of legal aid to pursue a civil damages claims.
Against that is a concern that unmeritorious claims may be prosecuted too frequently with settlements reached by defendants for reasons of expediency. Will contingency fees provide access to justice or stoke the fires of an unnecessarily litigious society? This is the substance of the pending conversation, and the recommendations of the Productivity Commission make it inevitable that we have it.
If contingency fee arrangements are to appear on Australia’s legal landscape there is a great deal more work that needs to be done. Should the contingency be capped or uncapped, and controlled by market forces? Should we, as a matter of policy, exclude such areas as family law and criminal law? All of these issues need to be addressed, but the threshold question of whether to accede to the Productivity Commission’s recommendations must be settled first.
Morry Bailes is managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers, Member of the Executive of the Law Council of Australia and immediate past President of the Law Society of SA.
The opinions expressed in this column are his own.
His column appears in InDaily on every second Thursday.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
THE APPEARANCE OF BIAS OF A JUDGE BEING SANCTIONED?
SEE THE LINK: http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2015/04/27/hearings-into-justice-of-the-peaces-remarks-should-proceed-lawyer-says.html
Hearings into Justice of the Peace’s remarks should proceed, lawyer says
Robert Whittaker retired before a disciplinary probe could examine allegations that he made controversial comments to defendants in court. But a Toronto criminal defence lawyer says that for the sake of transparency, the review should still be conducted.
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Lwam Ghebrehariat was acting as duty counsel on one of the days former Justice of the Peace Robert Whittaker made controversial remarks to a defendant in court. He felt Whittaker "totally failed" to appear unbiased in the case.
Lwam Ghebrehariat was acting as duty counsel on one of the days former Justice of the Peace Robert Whittaker made controversial remarks to a defendant in court. He felt Whittaker "totally failed" to appear unbiased in the case.
By: Jacques Gallant Staff Reporter, Published on Mon Apr 27 2015
Speaking from up high on the bench, Justice of the Peace Robert Whittaker told a Somali man that he did not appear to be “integrating . . . into the Canadian lifestyle,” questioned whether a woman with colitis should be allowed to drive a car and made comments about mental illness that one lawyer told him were “profoundly” disrespectful.
This was all in the span of about six months.
Court transcripts obtained by the Star offer a glimpse into the courtroom of the former Toronto JP, whose comments to several defendants led the Justices of the Peace Review Council to order a March 25 disciplinary hearing. All details in this story come from the court transcripts.
Ten days before the probe started, Whittaker retired, meaning the hearing was scrapped and the comments obtained from the transcripts were never tested in a public forum.
Whittaker, who was appointed in 1998 and earned $122,000 a year, and his lawyer, Brian Irvine, did not return the Star’s requests for comment.
Public hearings need to be held for the sake of accountability, said Toronto criminal defence lawyer Daniel Brown.
“Transparency and accountability are pillars of our justice system,” he said. “In order to protect these values, the review council should still hold a hearing even if the justice of the peace has removed himself from the bench.”
One of the complaints stems from a proceeding at the 2201 Finch Ave. W. courthouse on Oct. 30, 2013. According to a transcript, Whittaker had to decide whether to grant bail to a man who had been accused of assaulting his wife and uttering death threats, or keep him detained.
The man, who identified as Somali, testified with the help of an interpreter that he was a refugee from Ethiopia on social assistance with no criminal record. He said he would abide by bail conditions including living at a specific address and taking anger management classes.
The Crown expressed concern that he had no ties to the community other than to his wife, who he was ordered not to contact, and had no surety.
“You have shown this court today that you are not integrating yourself into the Canadian lifestyle or the Canadian ways,” Whittaker said, according to the transcript.
“You seem to be immersing yourself in the Somali community which may or may not have the same standards of Canadians, the lifestyle or Criminal Code or laws of this country, have. Unfortunately, Sir, you’re in the country of Canada. You have to live by our laws.”
Whittaker ordered the man’s detention, saying he had “no assurance” that he would return to court, and said he didn’t know “of any anger management courses that are given solely in Somali unless someone can help me.”
Lwam Ghebrehariat, who was acting as duty counsel that day, told the Star he was taken aback.
“Judges are held to a high standard. They’re supposed to treat everybody equally regardless of their identity, and also make sure there’s not even an appearance of bias,” he said. “I think His Worship totally failed in this case.”
In another instance at 2201 Finch in January 2014, Whittaker asked if it was known if the 24-year-old defendant had “mental health” before he was arrested. The prosecutor said the accused, arrested after a dispute with police, had apparently been diagnosed with depression, OCD and anxiety, and the Crown was requesting that he seek counselling.
“I’m asking why does it take someone from appearing in the (accused) box until suddenly (a) they’re going to get help for alcoholism, and (b) they’re going to get help for mental health, (c) they’re not going to go hit their wife anymore. Like, I don’t understand it,” Whittaker said, according to the transcript.
When the Crown prosecutor couldn’t offer an answer, Whittaker continued:
“. . . it makes no sense to me because I know my own personal family. I know exactly what my children are doing. I know what the state of their mental health is. I know if they have a drinking problem. Like am I that odd out of the rest of the population of the city of Toronto? I don’t think so.”
Duty counsel David Beal told Whittaker “you are profoundly disrespecting the individuals present in the body of the court and I don’t think it’s warranted in the circumstances,” reads the transcript.
Beal told the Star he stands by what he said in court.
Over at the provincial offences courthouse at 2700 Eglinton Ave. W., Whittaker made a number of comments to defendants while dealing with traffic tickets that led to review council complaints.
Whittaker told a woman who suffers from ulcerated colitis: “I question whether you should be even driving a car,” according to a transcript. She pled guilty to parking on the sidewalk so she could run into her home to go to the bathroom. She told him her experience in court was “very humiliating.” He let her off without a fine.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
HOW DO YOU PREDICT THE RESULT OF A COURT CASE?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-read-the-mind-of-a-supreme-court-justice/DETROIT, MI -- Several justices of the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday pressed a lawyer representing same-sex couples seeking the right to marry on issues of time, long-standing definitions, and states' rights.
ALGORITHMS 8:46 AM APR 28, 2015
How To Read The Mind Of A Supreme Court Justice
By OLIVER ROEDER
Despite the gleaming white building that houses it, the Supreme Court is one of the most powerful black boxes in the country. When it convenes for oral arguments, there are no photos, no videos, no broadcasts.
That’s not to say we’re clueless about the court’s goings on, of course. Journalists and bloggers attend the arguments and report back to their readers. And if we don’t have photos, at least we have sketches. Some have even turned to clandestine camerawork.1 Now a new project uses data to get inside the chamber — and maybe inside the justices’ heads.
Supreme Court oral arguments are exercises in multitasking: The justices are talking to advocates as they’re talking to each other. Chief Justice John Roberts has described the lawyers as “backboards” — justices’ questions rebound off the lawyers and back to the other justices. Through their questions, they can signal to the others what they’re thinking. They can also try to persuade. Their target is often Justice Anthony Kennedy, the most common swing vote on the bench.
But this legal process is also a data-generating process. How many words did Justice Elena Kagan utter? How about Justice Antonin Scalia? To whom were they spoken? What was the sentiment of those words? How many times was the solicitor general interrupted?
Chris Nasrallah knows the answers to these questions. He’s used them to create CourtCast, a computer model that predicts Supreme Court decisions based on oral arguments alone.
CourtCast, a machine-learning model, relies only on PDF files of oral argument transcripts. There are three inputs: the number of words spoken by justices to each party, the sentiment of those words, and the number of times a justice interrupts an attorney. That’s really it — CourtCast doesn’t care about body language, it doesn’t care about justices’ ideologies, and it doesn’t care about who’s arguing the case in front of the court. It doesn’t know the law or the precedent or the political climate. The model trains itself on past cases, learning which justice tendencies are pertinent. It can then analyze the transcript from any fresh case and predict an outcome.
“I’m surprised that nobody’s done this before,” Nasrallah told me over a cappuccino in downtown Manhattan in early March. Armed with a Ph.D. focused on computational biology from University of California, Berkeley and postdoc experience at North Carolina State, Nasrallah is pursuing a career in data science. He built CourtCast to get a job.2 He wanted to buck the negative stereotypes of academics — that they work slowly and are oblivious to commercial applications. He’s always been an interested court observer, so researching the subject came naturally. It took him just a few weeks to build CourtCast.
It isn’t perfect — far from it. Nasrallah claims a 70 percent accuracy rate, which is both impressive and not. Since John Roberts has been chief justice, the petitioner has won 68 percent of cases, so CourtCast’s 70 percent isn’t exactly better than just picking the favorites. But again, CourtCast is flying nearly blind. It has no idea what a given case is even about; it’s using just the words uttered in one hour of argument.
I’ve written before about other Supreme Court predictors — law professors, legal practitioners, hobbyists in Queens. Universally, human predictors emphasize the importance of the argument in their predictions. CourtCast, the first attempt I’m aware of to quantify oral argument with a machine model, is different. The patterns it uncovers are simple: When a justice asks questions of a lawyer, it’s bad for his chances — it means the justice is skeptical and is trying to poke holes. If justices interrupt a lawyer, it’s really bad for his chances — they’re so skeptical they just can’t wait to poke holes. A Ginsburg interruption is worst of all.
Nina Totenberg, NPR’s legal affairs correspondent, said she’d noticed that too. “More often than not — or at least there’s a 50-50 chance — counsel gets interrupted because that justice thinks what counsel just said is unacceptable crap.”
Below is a sample output from CourtCast for the landmark King v. Burwell Obamacare case. (CourtCast’s code is available on Nasrallah’s Github page, and more detail can be found on his blog.) The bigger the bar, the worse for the side that the bar is on.
IMG_2189
The liberals — Ginsburg and Justice Stephen Breyer — asked more of the petitioner and interrupted him a lot more. Bad news for him. The others did the same of the respondent.3 In the King v. Burwell case, CourtCast gives a 61 percent chance that the government wins and Obamacare subsidies are upheld.
SIDEBAR: CourtCast vs. NPR’s Nina Totenberg: How does a machine interpret a court case differently than a trained pro?
None of CourtCast’s findings came as a surprise to Adam Liptak, the Supreme Court correspondent for The New York Times. And he’d never heard of Nasrallah or CourtCast.
“Two things are well known and will get you to 70 percent with your eyes closed,” he told me. “One is the petitioner wins about two-thirds of the time.” The other: “If you get a lot of questions, you’re going to lose.”
Liptak may not be blown away by CourtCast’s 70 percent success rate, but that’s OK with Nasrallah for now. At least he’s confirmed the conventional wisdom. “Here we’ve quantified the intuition and the way the justices are acting,” Nasrallah said. And given that he built CourtCast in just a few weeks, he’s confident it can be improved.
Linda Greenhouse, formerly of The New York Times and now a lecturer at Yale, has written explicitly about her predictive prowess. In a 2004 paper, she described how the Supreme Court press corps routinely engaged in predictions, “usually made during the walk down the stairs from the courtroom following an oral argument session,” often with a friendly wager thrown in. She pegged her accuracy, for those cases she was bold enough to write about in the paper, at around 75 percent.
“Whatever Linda’s success rate was, mine is a little better,” Liptak joked.
Liptak and Dahlia Lithwick, Slate’s Supreme Court writer, both emphasized the importance of attending oral arguments rather than just parsing transcripts. Crossed arms, rolled eyes and tone of voice can be telling. And the computer is ignorant of all of that.
Despite its ignorance of body language, CourtCast works in part because of a sea change in the very nature of oral arguments. It thrives on the give-and-take of a “hot” bench. Interruptions are important to its predictions, and oral arguments weren’t always interrupted so frequently. Greenhouse noticed this trend covering the court in the 1980s. Former Chief Justice William Rehnquist never had to play argument traffic cop like Roberts does. And Lithwick has noticed it accelerate in the last few years.
JUSTICE WORDS INTERRUPTIONS
Sotomayor 522 2.6
Scalia 594 2.4
Breyer 821 2.1
Ginsburg 457 1.5
Roberts 577 1.5
Kennedy 322 1.1
Kagan 501 0.8
Alito 322 0.6
Thomas 0 0
Some credit — or blame — for the most recent changes can be given to the Sotomayor Effect. “Sotomayor is notorious for being a super-talker,” Lithwick said. “She interrupts everyone.” Lithwick’s right about the interruptions, but Justice Breyer runs away with the talkativeness crown. (Data is since 2005, and the table shows the average words uttered and interruptions per oral argument, by justice.)
But CourtCast’s reliance on justice word count and interruptions could render it less effective in the future. Totenberg cautions that though the bench is now fairly hot,4 it may cool down. Gentler personalities may fill its ranks, and it’s possible — possible — that the court may become less polarized. It’s tough to imagine how the algorithm could gain a foothold then.
The Supreme Court journalists were bullish on CourtCast’s usefulness. “If I were a Supreme Court advocate, I’m sure I would certainly study this material to get clues as to how to present myself and how to push the right buttons,” said Greenhouse.
“I can’t imagine it’s not incredibly useful to the attorneys and the parties,” said Lithwick.
But when I talked to a couple attorneys, they said they can already do better than CourtCast. Carter Phillips, a former assistant to the solicitor general and now a partner at Sidley Austin, has argued more cases before the Supreme Court — 80 — than any lawyer now in private practice. And for Phillips, simple predictions are a snap. He pegs his accuracy for the cases he argues at 90 percent. (Phillips doesn’t keep explicit stats, so this was his post facto estimate.) But even better than him, he says, is his wife, Sue Henry, who has been to 78 of his 80 arguments. Phillips thinks she’s gotten 77 right.
“It’s incredible to me,” he said. “She’ll come out and say, ‘You were great, but you’re going to lose.’”
He’s skeptical of a computer being able to help in oral argument preparation. “I doubt it, because of the format. Realistically, you get about 30 seconds to say something to the justices before they start asking questions,” he said.
But Phillips can imagine a world where computers could make a difference, if they went beyond simple affirm-or-reverse predictions.
“If you can come up with a computer that can tell me how the justices are actually going articulate the principle that applies, ahead of time, that I would pay dearly for,” he said, referring to the nuanced interpretation of the law that the justices often hand down in their final rulings. “That’s, candidly, a huge advance.”
Nasrallah rattled off a number of improvements he hopes to make to his model: It doesn’t yet analyze what the advocates say. Its sentiment analysis could be improved (it’s currently trained on a database of movie reviews, which might not be the best analog for the type of language usually used in legal arguments). It could look at specific types of words. Maybe a justice saying a lawyer’s name, for example, is meaningful. Perhaps humor — statements followed by “(laughter)” in the transcripts — holds information. The model could read in past decisions, briefs, statutes, and on and on.
There are other models that CourtCast could team up with, creating a kind of super-algorithm. {Marshall}+, another prominent Supreme Court case predicting model, doesn’t use any information from the oral arguments,5 and CourtCast, at least so far, doesn’t use any of the legal coding that {Marshall}+ relies on. Because they’re predicting based on mutually exclusive sets of information, they could combine and, theoretically, form a Frankenstein’s monster of high court prediction.
But not every human welcomes our court-predicting robot overlords.
“The idea that you spend a lot of time trying to figure out ahead of time what you’re going to know anyway in a matter of weeks or months is, to me, insane. Why would you bother?” Totenberg wondered.
Because we want to know now, Ms. Totenberg, that’s why! I write for FiveThirtyEight — we updated our March Madness predictions approximately 17 times while I wrote this sentence. (Editor’s note: Sorry it took me so long to get to your draft, Ollie.) Data promises us our crystal ball, doesn’t it?
But Totenberg made the case that the court’s decisions can only be understood through the long lens of history. Prediction is a waste of time, she told me. Supreme Court decision-making is complex, and justices’ rubrics can change dramatically over time. Justice Kennedy famously did an about-face in the middle of two major cases, reversing his long-held ideological views and voting to preserve the right to abortion and to ban clergy-led prayer at public schools.6 And we know only about these last-minute vote changes thanks to the release of Justice Harry Blackmun’s papers in 2004, five years after Blackmun died. What algorithm could’ve predicted that?
“Sometimes you only understand these things as history — and you’re lucky if you understand it as recent history,” Totenberg said.
Put aside whether CourtCast and its ilk are any good (or will become any good) at predicting cases; they’re still a blow against an opaque court.
“The court is so bound up in its own mystique and gravitas and the need to insulate itself from scrutiny of any sort,” said Lithwick. “It’s always fascinating to me when — whatever frame people use — [people] say, ‘Oh no, it’s actually not oracular. There’s something else happening.’”
And this is what CourtCast has begun to do. If Ginsburg ignores a lawyer, that means something. If Kennedy peppers a lawyer with questions, that means something else. And now we can quantify these things and how they augur for a case’s outcome.
“These are the kinds of things that make the justices mental — any intimation that they’re not magic. For me, it’s just delicious,” Lithwick said.
Regardless, most see the court’s frostiness as unlikely to thaw.
“Unless Congress literally threatens to shut [off] the lights and the heat, I don’t think this changes soon. And it’s very, very, in my view, appalling in a democracy,” Lithwick said.
In the meantime, hobbyists and professionals will continue to probe the court, whether through horse sense or hard analytics. The better the analytics get, the more they’ll be relied upon, and the thinner the shroud will become.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
NO CAUSATION BETWEEN ALLEGED LEGAL MALPRACTICE AND DAMAGES:
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
THE LAW ON THE MISCONDUCT OF PUBLIC OFFICERS INCLUDING CORRUPTION? THE PROSECUTOR NEED TO PROVE THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS FOR CONVICTION:(1) a public official; (2) in the course of or connected to his public office; (3) wilfully misconduct himself; by act or omission, for example, by wilfully neglecting or failing to perform his duty; (4) without reasonable excuse or justification; and (5) where such misconduct is serious and meriting criminal punishment having regard to the responsibilities of the office and the officeholder, the importance of the public objects which they serve and the nature and extent of the departure from those objects.
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